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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the current competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still