A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
